Predicting the future of Colombia’s forests: Exploring the upcoming possibilities


Exploring Future Scenarios: What Lies Ahead for Colombia’s Forests?

Colombia’s vast natural forest cover, spanning over half of its territory, including the Amazon basin, faces an uncertain future. As a country rich in biodiversity, with nearly 10% of the world’s biodiversity, Colombia’s deforestation policies are crucial in combating climate change.

However, between 2000 and 2020, extensive forest loss occurred due to cattle ranching and agricultural activities, accounting for approximately half of all forest loss in the country. President Gustavo Petro’s tenure has seen promises to slow deforestation rates and allocate more land to Indigenous communities. Despite having climate change laws and action plans in place, their implementation has proven challenging, leaving the future of Colombia’s forests uncertain.

To gain insight into potential outcomes, the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use, and Energy (FABLE) consortium conducted an analysis using the GLOBIOM-Colombia model, exploring three different policy directions. Regardless of the scenario, the report emphasizes that Colombia needs a consistent and innovative approach to deforestation to achieve its conservation goals. Additionally, strategies that consider the social and economic implications of changing agricultural industries will be vital.


Pathways to Conservation: Strategies for Colombia’s Forests in the Face of Deforestation

Although Colombia has implemented various deforestation and restoration policies, there is a lack of consistency and clarity in their priorities and implementation. This inconsistency poses challenges in effectively curbing deforestation.

The FABLE analysis presents three potential pathways. The first scenario maintains the status quo, leading to the conversion of forests into agricultural land, emitting significant amounts of CO2. The second scenario, more optimistic, envisions successfully closing the agricultural frontier to prevent further deforestation and ensuring restoration of deforested areas. The third pathway goes even further, allowing for additional natural forest regeneration within the agricultural frontier, resulting in significant reforestation and carbon sequestration.

The outcomes of the analysis highlight the importance of targeting high-risk ecosystems both inside and outside the agricultural frontier. The most ambitious pathway shows promising potential for reforestation and carbon sequestration without compromising agricultural production.

To successfully carry out reforestation efforts, community engagement and support are crucial. Measures such as land titling, community roundtables, and job creation initiatives can foster community buy-in and ensure the success of reforestation initiatives. Incentives should also be developed to complement Colombia’s reforestation efforts.

Overall, a comprehensive and coordinated approach, involving all stakeholders, is needed to secure the future of Colombia’s forests and address climate change effectively.